China’s population is set to decline in 2022 for the first time in six decades, a milestone for the world’s second-largest economy, which is facing an increasingly serious demographic crisis in world.
China had 1.41 billion people at the end of last year, down 850,000 from the end of 2021, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. It marks the first decline since 1961, the final year of the Great Famine under former leader Mao Zedong.
Some 9.56 million children are expected to be born in 2022, down from 10.62 million a year earlier, the lowest level since at least 1950, despite efforts by the government to encourage families to have more children.
A total of 10.41 million people died, a slight increase from the nearly 10 million recorded in recent years. China faced a surge in Covid-related deaths starting last month after abruptly abandoning its zero-tolerance approach to the virus in early December. More Covid-related deaths are likely this year as fatalities usually lag behind infection by weeks and the infection is still spreading across the country. This outbreak could further increase the number of deaths this year.
The population decline came much faster than previously expected, and can act as a brake on economic growth by slowing demand for goods such as new homes. Due to the decline, the Chinese economy may struggle to overtake the US in size and the country may lose its status as the world’s most populous nation to India this year.
The population decline came much faster than previously expected, and can act as a brake on economic growth by slowing demand for goods such as new homes. Due to the decline, the Chinese economy may struggle to overtake the US in size and the country may lose its status as the world’s most populous nation to India this year.
As recently as 2019, the United Nations was predicting that China’s population would peak in 2031 and then decline, but last year the United Nations revised that estimate and projected to see the peak by 2022. The labor force is already shrinking, demand for long-term housing is likely to fall further, and the government may also struggle to pay for its underfunded National Pension System.
The country is following in the footsteps of other countries in East Asia such as Japan or South Korea, which have seen their birth rates decline and populations age and shrink as they become richer and more developed.
China’s birth rate, or the number of births per 1,000 people, dropped to 6.77 last year, the lowest level since at least 1978. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that 62% of the population was of working age, which China defines as people aged 16 to 59, down from about 70% a decade earlier. highlights the challenges faced by the population as it ages.
–With assistance from Yujing Liu, Philip Glamann and James Mayger.