With rebel forces claiming the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, India is closely monitoring the political shift in the conflict-ridden Middle Eastern nation, as it could affect bilateral relations.
“We are closely observing the situation in Syria amid ongoing developments. We emphasize the importance of all parties working towards maintaining Syria’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. We support a peaceful, Syrian-led political process that respects the interests and aspirations of all segments of Syrian society. Our Embassy in Damascus is in touch with the Indian community to ensure their safety and security,” the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stated on December 9.
India and Syria have shared a cordial and peaceful diplomatic relationship under the Assad regime. However, with the fall of Assad’s government, the dynamics between the two nations could experience a shift.
History of India and Syria’s Relations
Bashar al-Assad has been leading Syria since 2000, following his father, Hafez al-Assad, who held power from 1971.
During the 2011 civil war, India adopted a stance advocating for conflict resolution through a non-military, Syrian-led political process. Despite the intensity of the conflict, India maintained its diplomatic relations with Syria, even when many nations isolated Damascus, leading to its expulsion from the Arab League.
India also contributed to Syria’s development with substantial assistance, including a $240 million line of credit for a power plant, investments in IT infrastructure, steel plant modernization, oil sector development, and exports of rice, pharmaceuticals, and textiles.
During the Covid-19 pandemic, India notably opposed sanctions against Syria, citing humanitarian concerns, and called for non-interference by foreign powers.
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, India strengthened its bilateral ties with Syria after the country rejoined the Arab League in 2023. In July 2023, then Minister of State for External Affairs, V. Muraleedharan, made a significant ministerial visit to Damascus.
Syria’s Support for India on the Kashmir Issue
While India has backed Syria on various international matters, including the Palestinian cause and Syria’s claim over the Golan Heights, Damascus has also supported New Delhi’s stance on Kashmir, asserting that it is an internal issue for India.
In 2016, Syrian Ambassador to India Riad Abbas stated that Kashmir was an internal matter for India. “Anyone who raises a weapon against the government, we consider them terrorists, and the government must take action against them,” Abbas told The Hindu.
He also expressed Syria’s desire for India’s assistance in rebuilding the war-torn country.
India Takes a Cautious Approach
Experts believe that India’s strong ties with Syria have enabled New Delhi to leverage its relationships with other Middle Eastern countries. However, with the rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, backed by Turkey, claiming victory over Syria, India is closely monitoring the situation as it develops in the conflict-ridden nation.
Recently, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not raise the Kashmir issue at the United Nations, which many viewed as a sign of improving India-Turkey relations.
In response to the unfolding situation in Syria, New Delhi has issued a travel advisory, urging Indians to avoid traveling to the country. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) also advised those already in Syria to take “utmost precaution” and limit their movements. “In view of the prevailing situation in Syria, Indian nationals are advised to avoid all travel to Syria until further notice… Those who can, are encouraged to leave at the earliest available commercial flights, while others are requested to exercise extreme caution regarding their safety and limit their movements,” the MEA stated.
Is the Islamic State Making a Comeback?
The rebel groups led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria have their origins in al-Qaeda, which has been designated a terrorist organization by both the US and the United Nations. Although HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has claimed to sever ties with al-Qaeda and stated that his group’s primary goal is to overthrow the Assad government rather than launch attacks on the West, both Western countries and India remain cautious.
Backed by Turkey, HTS has seized regions in northern Syria following the US military’s withdrawal. Initially founded as Jabhat al-Nusrah in January 2012, HTS started as a branch of the Islamic State of Iraq. Senior fellow Aaron Y. Zelin from the Washington Institute noted that when Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi moved the organization from Iraq to Syria in April 2013, Jolani disavowed Baghdadi and pledged allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qaeda at the time. Eventually, Jolani parted ways with al-Qaeda and focused on expanding HTS.
Since the US military’s withdrawal from Syria, there have been growing concerns in the US that this move could provide the Islamic State with an opportunity to regain power.
Recently, the US military launched a series of airstrikes targeting the Islamic State after Assad fled to Russia. The Pentagon described these as precision strikes, asserting that no civilian casualties were reported. The US military is still conducting a battle damage assessment, as per US Central Command.
President Joe Biden has stated that the decline of Assad’s presidency is partly due to US support for Israel’s war on Gaza, its efforts against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and backing groups in Syria and Iraq that have weakened Syria’s close ally, Iran.
Biden also confirmed that US forces will remain in northeast Syria, where they continue to support the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in their fight against the Islamic State. Currently, around 900 US troops are stationed in the region.
Source: News18
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